Time from Symptom Onset to Hospitalisation of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Cases: Implications for the Proportion of Transmissions from Infectors with Few Symptoms.
Identifieur interne : 000038 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000037; suivant : 000039Time from Symptom Onset to Hospitalisation of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Cases: Implications for the Proportion of Transmissions from Infectors with Few Symptoms.
Auteurs : Robin N. Thompson [Royaume-Uni] ; Francesca A. Lovell-Read [Royaume-Uni] ; Uri Obolski [Israël]Source :
- Journal of clinical medicine [ 2077-0383 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
Interventions targeting symptomatic hosts and their contacts were successful in bringing the 2003 SARS pandemic under control. In contrast, the COVID-19 pandemic has been harder to contain, partly because of its wide spectrum of symptoms in infectious hosts. Current evidence suggests that individuals can transmit the novel coronavirus while displaying few symptoms. Here, we show that the proportion of infections arising from hosts with few symptoms at the start of an outbreak can, in combination with the basic reproduction number, indicate whether or not interventions targeting symptomatic hosts are likely to be effective. However, as an outbreak continues, the proportion of infections arising from hosts with few symptoms changes in response to control measures. A high proportion of infections from hosts with few symptoms after the initial stages of an outbreak is only problematic if the rate of new infections remains high. Otherwise, it can simply indicate that symptomatic transmissions are being prevented successfully. This should be considered when interpreting estimates of the extent of transmission from hosts with few COVID-19 symptoms.
DOI: 10.3390/jcm9051297
PubMed: 32369975
PubMed Central: PMC7288278
Affiliations:
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In contrast, the COVID-19 pandemic has been harder to contain, partly because of its wide spectrum of symptoms in infectious hosts. Current evidence suggests that individuals can transmit the novel coronavirus while displaying few symptoms. Here, we show that the proportion of infections arising from hosts with few symptoms at the start of an outbreak can, in combination with the basic reproduction number, indicate whether or not interventions targeting symptomatic hosts are likely to be effective. However, as an outbreak continues, the proportion of infections arising from hosts with few symptoms changes in response to control measures. A high proportion of infections from hosts with few symptoms after the initial stages of an outbreak is only problematic if the rate of new infections remains high. Otherwise, it can simply indicate that symptomatic transmissions are being prevented successfully. This should be considered when interpreting estimates of the extent of transmission from hosts with few COVID-19 symptoms.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="PubMed-not-MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32369975</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>28</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">2077-0383</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><Volume>9</Volume><Issue>5</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>May</Month><Day>01</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Journal of clinical medicine</Title><ISOAbbreviation>J Clin Med</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Time from Symptom Onset to Hospitalisation of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Cases: Implications for the Proportion of Transmissions from Infectors with Few Symptoms.</ArticleTitle><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">E1297</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.3390/jcm9051297</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Interventions targeting symptomatic hosts and their contacts were successful in bringing the 2003 SARS pandemic under control. In contrast, the COVID-19 pandemic has been harder to contain, partly because of its wide spectrum of symptoms in infectious hosts. Current evidence suggests that individuals can transmit the novel coronavirus while displaying few symptoms. Here, we show that the proportion of infections arising from hosts with few symptoms at the start of an outbreak can, in combination with the basic reproduction number, indicate whether or not interventions targeting symptomatic hosts are likely to be effective. However, as an outbreak continues, the proportion of infections arising from hosts with few symptoms changes in response to control measures. A high proportion of infections from hosts with few symptoms after the initial stages of an outbreak is only problematic if the rate of new infections remains high. Otherwise, it can simply indicate that symptomatic transmissions are being prevented successfully. This should be considered when interpreting estimates of the extent of transmission from hosts with few COVID-19 symptoms.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Thompson</LastName><ForeName>Robin N</ForeName><Initials>RN</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0001-8545-5212</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Christ Church, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 1DP, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lovell-Read</LastName><ForeName>Francesca A</ForeName><Initials>FA</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0002-3039-1159</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Obolski</LastName><ForeName>Uri</ForeName><Initials>U</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 6997801, Israel.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Porter School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 6997801, Israel.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><GrantList CompleteYN="Y"><Grant><GrantID>Junior Research Fellowship</GrantID><Agency>University of Oxford</Agency><Country></Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>Oxford Interdisciplinary Bioscience Doctoral Training Partnership award</GrantID><Agency>UKRI-BBSRC</Agency><Country></Country></Grant></GrantList><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate 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Thompson</name></region><name sortKey="Lovell Read, Francesca A" sort="Lovell Read, Francesca A" uniqKey="Lovell Read F" first="Francesca A" last="Lovell-Read">Francesca A. Lovell-Read</name><name sortKey="Thompson, Robin N" sort="Thompson, Robin N" uniqKey="Thompson R" first="Robin N" last="Thompson">Robin N. Thompson</name></country><country name="Israël"><noRegion><name sortKey="Obolski, Uri" sort="Obolski, Uri" uniqKey="Obolski U" first="Uri" last="Obolski">Uri Obolski</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Obolski, Uri" sort="Obolski, Uri" uniqKey="Obolski U" first="Uri" last="Obolski">Uri Obolski</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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